How it's calculated
Real CAGR is what matters for purchasing-power preservation. A 6% appreciation in a 5% inflation environment is only ~1% real growth — the property is barely keeping up with the rising cost of everything else.
India residential appreciation reference
| Period | Pan-India CAGR | Top metros |
|---|---|---|
| 2003 – 2013 (boom) | 15 – 20% | 20 – 30% |
| 2013 – 2020 (flat) | 2 – 4% | 0 – 3% (often negative real) |
| 2020 – 2024 (recovery) | 6 – 10% | 8 – 14% |
| Long-term avg (1990 – 2024) | ~9% | 10 – 12% |
Past returns don't guarantee future returns. Use 5–8% as a base case for residential, 7–10% for commercial / Tier-1 metro, 10%+ only for specific high-growth pockets.
FAQ
Should I include rental income in this?
No — appreciation is the capital-gain side only. Total return = appreciation + rental yield. Use the rental yield calculator for the cash-flow component.
Is my city's appreciation likely to repeat?
Look at the local market's historical CAGR (often available in real-estate consultancy reports) and current absorption rate. Cities with high inventory overhang or job-loss risk show below-trend appreciation; tight-supply / job-rich cities like Bengaluru and Hyderabad have outperformed.